Analysis and News Magazine

Today's information warfare is so fierce, unnamed melodies are often more attractive than famous ones. The lines in the famous ode to the British poet Shelley "The Skylark" came to mind-"In broad daylight/you can't see it, but I hear your harsh joy..." 

Two incidents in the past two weeks show that people are increasingly optimistic about the future of Afghanistan. Both of these developments indicate that scaffolding to improve regional connectivity, economic development, and governance is emerging, but there are basically no reports. 

Of course, Lieutenant General Victor Mahmudov, the National Security Adviser of Uzbekistan, was invited by Muyid Yusuf, the National Security Agency of Pakistan, to visit Islamabad for three days in early November. This visit is worthwhile. Pay attention. Prime Minister Imran Khan and Commander-in-Chief Kamal Bajwa received the Uzbek delegation. 

Uzbekistan is an advanced model formed in the post-Soviet era. The Tashkent National Security Council under the auspices of the President has complete control over the exercise of national security powers, which makes the country's policies have significant consistency. Mahmudov has held this position since 2013. 

Abdulaziz Kamilov has been Uzbekistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2012-if you also consider his nine-year term from 1994 to 2003, he may be the most experienced foreign minister in the world . No wonder Uzbekistan’s foreign policy has performed so well in a challenging external environment. 

As the National Security Agency Moeed Yusuf wrote in a tweet, during Mahmudov’s visit, Pakistan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement that “will help strengthen the security between our two fraternal countries. And regional connectivity.” 

An official statement issued in Islamabad stated that the protocol "covers a wide range of security-related issues of mutual concern to both sides, and has established a coordination mechanism between the two national security committees." 

After the signing ceremony, Youssef told the media that the two countries will expand cooperation in areas such as combating terrorism, transnational crime, and drug trafficking under the new security committee, assist each other in anti-drug forces and disaster management capacity building, and strengthen defense and defense. Military cooperation. .

To be sure, developments in Afghanistan dominated the one-on-one talks between Yusuf and Makmudov. Yusuf said that Islamabad and Tashkent “hold the same position” on Afghanistan - that is, they should engage constructively with the current government of Kabul to avoid a humanitarian crisis that could further seriously affect neighboring countries. 

Strengthening ties with Central Asia in accordance with geo-economic policies is one of Pakistan’s main goals. The Uzbekistan delegation went to the border of Tolkam and witnessed the arrival of four freight trucks from Uzbekistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. In May of this year, Pakistan's first ship under the TIR system was shipped to Uzbekistan by land.  

As Yusuf said, "Uzbekistan's proximity to Afghanistan is a very critical factor in realizing our geo-economic paradigm." This is a statement of fact. Former Soviet technocrats, sports icons and playboys are impossible partners, but in fact, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoev and Prime Minister Imran Khan have established a warm friendship on a personal level. 

The leadership’s personal equation helped advance the prairie geostrategy, and both leaders realized the political and economic necessity of pushing them together. Uzbekistan-Pakistan's regional stability and economic growth methods were born. 

Uzbekistan prioritizes transportation via Pakistan to the ports of Gwadar and Karachi, rather than the route to the world market via Chabahar. In fact, the US State Department quickly realized this when it announced the US-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan-Pakistan four-nation agreement in July, “focusing on strengthening regional connectivity” and encouraging “long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan”. The US initiative will sound alarm bells in Moscow and Beijing. 

It is against such a dynamic background that the second development of the month needs to be evaluated, that is, on November 8th-Kyrgyzstan’s Prime Minister Akirbek Zaparov dramatically announced that Bishkek is ready to continue Beijing’s Long-term project to build a railway line connecting China and Uzbekistan.

The announcement was made immediately after the Uzbekistan delegation visited Islamabad, which shows that Beijing has clever skills in the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan’s “big picture”. Beijing (and Moscow) will take note of the desperate mission of Britain and the United States to make a comeback in Afghanistan. 

Western media reported extensively whether Beijing was sneezing, but blocked Zaparov’s statement on the railway project in Bishkek. Zaparov said his government has reached an agreement with Tashkent on all outstanding issues of the railway project and hopes to reach the same agreement with Beijing in the near future, possibly during a high-level visit to the Chinese capital. 

China appreciates Uzbekistan's relatively developed domestic railway network and its potential as a regional hub. Therefore, as part of the "One Belt One Road" initiative, China has long planned to build a railway from Xinjiang via Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (and Iran). The main obstacle is Beijing's insistence that the new railway line should adopt a track width of 1,435 mm, which is used in China and most parts of the world, while the 1,520 mm specification of Russia in the Soviet era is popular in Central Asia. 

Believe in China’s ingenuity to find a technical solution through dual-track tracking within the larger Russian track and a narrower international gauge, which will also eliminate the transition between China-Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan-Iran borders Needs to reduce project costs. 

In fact, the latest project completed under China’s ambitious “Belt and Road” initiative, the 2.2-kilometer-long Sino-Russian Tongjiang-Xinningskoye Railway Bridge across the Amur River, has become a “technical” using the new dual-track approach. demonstration". 

The first test train crossed the border in August. The Chinese Communist Party has proposed a railway line to London in the goal. With the opening of the bridge, the railway transportation distance from China's Heilongjiang Province to Moscow will be shortened by 809 kilometers and the transportation time will be shortened by 10 hours. 

Iron ore is the main product of the bridge, with a designed annual cargo capacity of 21 million tons. Moreover, it is important that the railway bridge adopts a dual-track system, allowing trains to run on both Russian and Chinese gauges at the same time! 

Bishkek's approval of the Chinese railway project can significantly change the cross-border connectivity of Central Asia and many regional countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran. The geopolitics of the region will never be the same again. 

Uzbekistan is a big beneficiary here. It is the main gateway to Afghanistan and Pakistan (Gwadar and Karachi ports), and Pakistan has become a key country in regional politics. In March, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan agreed to build a 573-kilometer road map from Mazar-e-Sharif to Peshawar via Kabul. The project is estimated to cost 5 billion U.S. dollars and will open the Pakistani seaport in the Arabian Gulf to Uzbekistan.

From a Russian perspective, with the proposed Central Asian railway network connected to the Russian power grid. The rail link will have a multiplier effect on Russia’s ability to use Afghanistan’s reconstruction. 

The crisis in Afghanistan has forced Central Asian countries to move closer, and China and Russia have to strengthen cooperation and coordination to strengthen regional security. What should not be underestimated is the Uji agreement in March, which resolved the 30-year border dispute between the two countries under the initiative of Tashkent. This is a prerequisite for the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway.

To be sure, the main players—mainly China, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan—are fully aware that regional connectivity and long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan are interrelated.

*MK Bhadrakumar is a former Indian diplomat. This article was co-produced by Indian Punchline and Globetrotter.

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I was fortunate enough to interview a teacher from an Iranian public school. His name was not disclosed because

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